Severe weather, tornado threat possible across the state Monday and Tuesday
Strong to severe storms are expected to move across Tennessee Monday night, bring the potential for damaging winds of up to 58 mph, golf ball size hail and isolated tornados. Western and Middle Tennessee will feel the impacts Monday evening and overnight before the storms move out toward Eastern Tennessee and the East Coast on Tuesday.
The autumn jet stream pattern will bring a powerful southward plunge over the central U.S. early this week, setting the stage for an area of low pressure to strengthen as it tracks from the central Plains to the Great Lakes.
The cold front associated with this system will slide eastward through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the East.
Ahead of this cold front, warm, moist air will surge northward, with dew points into the 60s as far north as portions of the Ohio River Valley and mid-Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. Some spots along the northern as far north as Jackson, Mississippi and Tuscaloosa, Alabama may see summer-like muggy dew points near 70 degrees – plenty moist for severe weather.
The strong upper-level winds and ample moisture will help create an unstable atmosphere in the South as the cold front approaches, producing strong to severe thunderstorms.
- Afternoon: The threat of severe storms will develop late in the afternoon from northeastern Texas and far southeastern Oklahoma into Arkansas, northwest Mississippi, western Tennessee, southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
- Evening and Overnight: Severe storms, possibly in the form of a squall line, could threaten areas from Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas to much of Mississippi, northern/central Alabama, Tennessee, far northwest Georgia, Kentucky, far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, southern Indiana and extreme southwest Ohio.
- Threats: Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are the main threats, though isolated large hail is also possible. A couple of strong tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially in the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys into Monday evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also likely.
- Forecast: Severe storms could be ongoing Tuesday morning in western portions of the red area depicted on the map below. Strong to severe storms could then spread to parts of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast coast through the day.
- Threats: Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible, as well as locally heavy rainfall.