With only a few days to see high rising rivers crest and begin to fall, significant rain is expected again by mid-week. Two to four inches of rain can be expected in Middle Tennessee.
Rainfall is expected to return to Middle Tennessee early Wednesday, falling on saturated grounds unable to absorb much more. Area creeks, streams, and rivers are running high and a number of river gauge locations are above Action Stage. Rain is expected to move out Thursday afternoon, leaving total rainfall amounts of several inches across the area.
Runoff from this event will likely cause rises of smaller creeks and streams, especially Wednesday evening when intense thunderstorms may produce flash flooding. Minor flooding may also be possible on the larger rivers into the weekend, especially on the lower reaches of the Cumberland, Duck, and Tennessee River basins.
Model guidance indicates storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches can be expected, with isolated higher amounts possible. Where the rain falls varies from Southern Kentucky and most of Tennessee, to Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama. This lack of consistency with where the rain will fall creates uncertainty with total rainfall amounts, as well as the severity of flooding.